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27 mars 2012 2 27 /03 /mars /2012 15:33

rain_glob_seas1-copie-4.gif

 

27/03/12: the latest results of our seasonal forecasts confirm the previous trend, namely:

 
- Persistence of abnormal warm and dry on Western Europe but with the return of frequent summer thunderstorms sometimes violent.

- For the United States: a trend toward very hot summer and risk of intense cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts.

 
A few points are worth noting:

 
- Drought is expected to remain strong in France and the UK despite the emphasis of storms this summer they will probably limit the water surface tension for agriculture, but they can also be violent, likely to result in damage. These rainstorms are not enough to support the low-water river, whose current levels are already close to summer low flows.

 
- The risk of very severe heat waves  seems significant this year, while in 2011, we had clearly emphasized a turnaround for the summer (which turned out ). This year, there are similarities with 2003 (the heatwave in Western Europe), including a weather scenario quite similar to March 2003/2012.

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Paul Denault 09/04/2012 18:28

Good article! You point to similarities between this year and 2003, when western Europe experienced a hot, dry summer. In the CONUS, the southeastern U.S had a "cool" late spring and summer. In
fact, Atlanta, GA recorded no 90F or greater max temperatures in the entire month of June, and only one 90 degree temperature in July. This has only occurred in two other Julys in Atlanta, 1975 and
1967. After only 6 more 90F or greater maximum readings in August, that was it for the summer, a total of 7. The mean is (41) as of the 1971-2000 normals. In review, May averaged 69.0F or -0.8 degs
below average, June with 74.4F or a departure of -2.4 degs F, followed by July and August at 77.9 (-2.1F) and 79.1 (+0.2F), respectively. Matthew Holliday, here is more fodder for your prediction
of a cooler than average May through August for much of the U.S. Very interesting.

Matthew Holliday 29/03/2012 21:37

Great article! I have a couple of questions. . . I agree with the fact that western Europe will be dry/abnormally hot this summer. As far as the very hot summer for the US that you are forecasting,
why do you see this happening? Also, you believe that there will be intense cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic. Does that mean that you believe that there will be a high number of
tropical systems this hurricane season, or that there will be fewer systems but with higher intensity. Thanks for taking the time to read this!

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