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15 novembre 2011 2 15 /11 /novembre /2011 21:38

ts_glob_seas1-copie-9.gif

 

rain_glob_seas1-copie-7.gif

 

 

Seasonal forecasts: the latest results of our numerical model are parallel to fall:

(above maps: anomalies of temperature and precipitation for the quarter NDJ).

Analysis: The model envisages a slightly colder winter than the average for Western Europe and the northeastern United States. A very cold anomaly is planned for Alaska and northwestern Canada, as he would softer on Russia and the southern United States.

Precipitation are weaker on Western Europe and the southern United States. They are above average in the Mediterranean basin and the northeastern United States (heavy snow).

 

January 2012: colder on Western Europe:

 

ts_glob_jan2012-copie-1.gif

 

 

Conclusion: these results confirm a good seasonal forecast reliability of a cold and snowy winter for the northeast United States and Canada. They confirm the winter a little colder than normal in Western Europe, especially in December / January, with a tendency to drought.

It noted an anomaly in the very wet western Pacific (Indonesia, northeast of Australia ...) due to the persistence of La Nina.

 

hiver_2012-copie-2.png

 

For detailed maps on a monthly basis, please contact us.

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